Skopje, 6 November 2024 (MIA) – Donald Trump’s convincing victory in the US presidential election confirmed that public opinion polls, showing Trump and his rival, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, being neck and neck, failed. As regards the country’s EU integration path, the prospect of the US Department of State acting as a mediator to unblock the process isn’t ruled out, former US ambassador Vasko Naumovski and analyst Marko Troshanovski say in a statement for MIA.

Asked about the election outcome and what kind of changes he expects in the American foreign policy, primarily in the region, Naumovski says public opinion polls have proven wrong again showing Trump and Harris in a tight race, adding Trump won the election in the so-called swing states. 

“President Trump managed to improve his result winning more votes in the federal states that secure victory. The main focus of the new American administration is expected to be on the economy, which was one of the reasons for this turning point in US politics all the while making certain changes in foreign policy to restore the US’s leadership on the global stage. First of all, it refers to the role the US may take in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and to contribute to stabilizing the European continent in economic, political and security-related sense. It will undoubtedly affect the Balkan region as well,” says ambassador Naumovski, who is a law professor in Skopje. 

According to him, no radical changes are expected in the bilateral relations between the United States and Macedonia because there are no open issues. However, Naumovski states, some changes might be expected as regards closing open issues in the Balkans, and in that context, to lay foundations for full EU integration of the Western Balkans, which in fact is one of the goals of the long-term American foreign policy.

According to analyst Troshanovski, polls failed in forecasting who will win the US presidential election after projecting a tight race between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Trump winning a convincing victory will additionally increase polarisation in the American society, which is reaching unseen levels of antagonization between the supporters and voters of Trump and Harris, he says.

“Regarding Europe and Western Balkans, European leaders are increasingly concerned, I believe, with this US election outcome, but it could also serve as a chance for the European leaders to unite in terms of increasing common external debt, approving more financial support for the economy, the reforms Mario Draghi has announced in the amount of EUR 800 billion to be injected in the EU economy so as to remain competitive globally, etc. Concern over the potential weakening of NATO or America leaving NATO, I believe is less likely, although it could be expected relations to become rocky. After all, we are amid a global geopolitical conflict. 

Unilateral imposition of a truce or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, as promised by Trump, is also against the interests of Brussels. Also, potential escalation of trade wars with reciprocal measures, which marked his previous term, both with Europe and China, and lastly, the impact of Trump on the far-right in the EU – these are the areas that should concern us. On the other hand, it could help the European continent as it is stuck in a limbo with cooperation lacking by Germany and by France. It could ultimately trigger painful but necessary reforms in the EU,” states Troshanovski. 

Asked whether the country could expect American support for the prospect of renegotiating the negotiating framework involving constitutional change with delayed effect after the accession negotiations are complete, as insisted by the government in an attempt to unblock the country’s EU integration bid, both Naumovski and Troshanovski don’t rule out this possibility. 

“One of the strategic traditional objectives of the United States is to stabilize the Balkans and to help the region fully integrate into the EU. All related issues could be one of the moves the United States could make in the region in the period to come. Support and encouragement of certain processes is possible that could contribute to solving bilateral issues that hinder the EU’s enlargement,” says Naumovski.

It could be of course expected, Troshanovski tells MIA. “It has been already done by the Department of State in supporting the process, however, the negotiating positions of Bulgaria and of Macedonia in the context of the Ukraine war with Bulgaria being more exposed as a country in the eastern front with its importance in the present context – this has contributed to possible American support in this dispute not always being in our interest, being more favourable toward Bulgaria. Will this administration make a significant step in this regard – I believe there is interest in both the European leaders and in America to push for some model that would make the constitutional change a reality. For this to happen, a stable government in Bulgaria is expected because, realistically, there is no interlocutor in the neighbouring country,” Troshanovski says. 

Republican candidate Donald Trump is set for a second term as US president after defeating Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House, US broadcasters projected early on Wednesday.

US networks Fox News, CNN and NBC declared Trump the incoming president after projecting that he had secured enough Electoral College votes following wins over Harris in hard-fought battleground states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, dpa reported. 

Photo: BBC/EPA/MIA