Skopje, 10 November 2024 (MIA) - Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections will inevitably have a negative impact on the Macedonian economy as well, said Branimir Jovanovikj, an economic analyst at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, in a statement for MIA.

Jovanovikj told MIA that Trump’s main campaign promise to introduce tariffs on all imported products to the US – 60 percent if they are imported from China and 20 percent from all other countries – will lead to a trade war and push other countries to introduce tariffs on US products as well, reducing global trade.

“The IMF recently assessed that this could cost the world US$7 trillion (7 percent of global GDP), which is a huge amount. If something like this were to happen, there is no way Macedonia wouldn’t be affected, despite the fact its exports to the US are very low,” Jovanovikj said. 

The other main aspect through which Trump could affect the global economy, according to Jovanovikj, is the uncertainty he brings on a geopolitical level.

“One thing that’s certain about him is that things will be uncertain. You don’t know whether he will support Ukraine; whether he will leave NATO or blackmail European countries into buying more arms from the US so that it stays in NATO; you don’t know whether he will start a war with Iran; create tensions with China... The world wasn’t a very predictable place before either, but now it could turn into total chaos. This would inevitably affect economic flows, above all investments, since investors like certainty, they like to know what will happen,” Jovanovikj said. 

According to Jovanovikj, Trump’s pledge to deport 10 million immigrants from the country, if realized, would not only affect the US economy but it would also have reverberations in Europe as well.

“If he really starts doing that, not only would it cause chaos there, but it would also leave the country without workers, which would have a negative impact on their economy. The same is expected to happen in Europe as well, where the extreme right would grow stronger. This would have a great impact on the old continent since it relies on immigrants even more than the US,” Jovanovikj told MIA. 

Biljana Anastasova-Kostikj

Translation: Angel Dimoski

Photo: MIA Archive