Pristina, 10 February 2025 (dpa/MIA) - Prime Minister Albin Kurti and his left-wing nationalist party Vetëvendosje (Self-Determination) have won Kosovo's parliamentary elections, according to exit polls on Sunday.

However, after garnering an estimated 37% to 42% of the votes, the ruling party is likely to be dependent on coalition partners in order for 49-year-old Kurti to continue to govern. 

Data from four organizations that conducted post-election surveys and gave forecasts suggest that the centre-right Democratic Party (PDK) took 19% to 23% of the votes, the centrist Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) 19% to 20% and the conservative Alliance for the Future (AAK) 6% to 8%. 

Other parties and alliances are likely to have failed at the 5% hurdle, which decides who enters the parliament in Pristina.

Regardless of this, 20 of the 120 seats are reserved for ethnic minority groups: 10 for Serbs and a further 10 for others, including Bosniaks, Turks and Roma.

Former Serbian province

Kosovo, which is now almost exclusively inhabited by Albanians, used to be a Serbian province. In 1998-99, Serbia responded to an armed uprising by Kosovo Albanians with massacres and expulsions.

In 1999, NATO air strikes forced Belgrade to withdraw its security forces from the province. The country was governed by the United Nations administration UNMIK until it declared its independence in 2008.

This put Kosovo on a volatile geopolitical fault line. While Germany, the US, most EU countries and almost 100 other states recognized Kosovo's statehood, Serbia, Russia and China did not.

The leadership in Belgrade under President Aleksandar Vučić also leverages the population of ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo, which created a flashpoint in recent years. 

During his time in office, Kurti succeeded in eliminating the parallel structures operated by Serbia in northern Kosovo.

Among other things, he stopped the use of the Serbian dinar as a means of payment and closed Serbian post offices. While drawing criticism from Western partners, this earned him great approval from the Kosovar population.

At the same time, Kurti is criticized for having only fulfilled a few of his ambitious reform promises. Political opponents also accuse him of having permanently damaged relations with Washington.

In the last parliament, Kurti's Vetëvendosje had a comfortable majority together with lawmakers from the ethnic minorities. After this election, Kurti may have to look for other partners for a new government mandate.

Relations with US sour

With the inauguration last month of US President Donald Trump, there are signs of a deterioration in Kurti's relationship with the US, Kosovo's most important military partner.

Richard Grenell, Trump's envoy for special missions, attacked Kurti in several posts on X shortly before the election, accusing him of unreliability.

The "Kurti Government was not trustworthy during Trump's first term, nor during Biden's term," Grenell wrote. Both "Republicans and Democrats have criticized Kurti consistently for taking unilateral actions that destabilize the region," he added.

The diplomat did not mention how the EU, NATO and the US had criticized Belgrade - albeit cautiously - for allowing an armed strike force from Serbia to enter northern Kosovo in September 2023 to incite more Kosovo Serbs to join an armed insurgency.

One Kosovar policeman and three Serbian intruders died in the fighting.

Many in the West see Vučić as a stabilizing factor for the region. Under his leadership, Serbia, which has been negotiating EU membership since 2014, has trodden a path between the West and Russia, which it has not sanctioned for the war in Ukraine. 

Grenell was already envoy to the Balkans during Trump's first presidency. In March 2020, he brought about Kurti's ouster after just six weeks in government, due to the Kosovar's resistance to the more Serbia-friendly course of the Trump team.

Photo: EPA