Skopje, 15 December 2023 (MIA) — The State Statistical Office on Friday released its Population Projections 2022–2070, which suggest that North Macedonia's population in the years ahead will decline according to various scenarios of possible future change.

According to the SSO projections, the country’s population, from the initial base population of 1,832,000 in 2022, by the end of the projection period would range from 501,200 (if rates remain constant) to 1,485,700 (in a scenario without migrations).

"This means that maintaining the values of the population movement components at the 2022 level (a total fertility rate of 23% below the needed rate to replace the generation, a relatively short life expectancy of 76 years and a very high net-emigration of over 14 thousand people per year for European standards), would lead, by the end of the projection period, to an enormous population decline of 1.3 million people," the SSO publication says.

The population projections are the first to be produced in 25 years. They are based on the 2021 Population and Housing Census and the assumptions there will be no regional wars, the country joins the EU in the first half of 2030s, has a stable political situation and economic growth and no major health crises.

Presenting the projections, SSO director Apostol Simovski said they should guide policymakers in creating strategies for the country's social and economic development.

According to President Stevo Pendarovski, worse than any population decline was not being aware of the problem.

"Based on the census results, the State Statistical Office produced projections suggesting that our population will decrease by as much as 35 percent, from the current 1.8 million to barely 1.2 million inhabitants by 2070," President Pendarovski said, adding that of the three key principal determinants of population growth — fertility, mortality and migration — the most concerning was the country's emigration rate.

According to many, Pendarovski said, the main reason for emigration was corruption. He stressed that people were emigrating not only because of low wages but also to have a better quality of life.

"These projections should not push us into apathy, but wake us up," the President said.

According to the SSO projections, in scenario assumptions of absence of emigration, a moderate increase in fertility, and a continuous decrease in mortality, the population would drop by 346,000, or a fifth (19%) compared to 2021 census figures.

The publication also discusses other scenarios statisticians explored.

"According to the medium fertility variant, the total decrease would amount to 35% (from 1.8 to 1.2 million inhabitants)," they say, whereas "the high fertility variant would result in a population decline by 23% (from 1.8 to 1.4 million)."

"It should be pointed out that according to that variant only, the population decline would not be continuous. Namely, assuming a realization of a relatively rapid increase in fertility, which would stabilize at 2.03 children per woman starting from 2034, the population decline process could be stopped, but only after three decades, that is, starting from 2064.

"That indicates the complexity of the demographic situation in the country, which is best understood through the effects of the negative migration balance and the very intensive and ongoing population aging process," the publication says.

The SSO Population Projections 2022–2070 are available at https://www.stat.gov.mk/publikacii/2023/Proekcii_2070_en.pdf.