Potential minority gov't in Sofia would be short-lived, unlikely to resolve dispute by December: analysts
Skopje, 14 July 2021 (MIA) - A potential minority government in Sofia would be short-lived and a step towards new snap elections which may coincide with the presidential elections this autumn. In such circumstances, the odds that Sofia will change its mind about Skopje in terms of adopting North Macedonia’s negotiating framework and starting accession negotiations are extremely slim, according to political analysts Simonida Kacarska of the Institute for European Policies and Marko Troshanovski from the Institute for Democracy Societas Civilis in Skopje, in anticipation of the final election results where there is a dead race between Boyko Borisov’s GERB and Slavi Trifonov’s ITN, which has a minimal lead of 1% and has announced the formation of a minority government in Bulgaria.
According to Kacarska, it’s evident from the preliminary results that it’ll be difficult to form a government in Sofia. If a government happens to be formed, it’s highly likely to be unstable, and there is the added possibility of a new election cycle in Bulgaria that may coincide with the presidential elections.
Troshanovski believes that two scenarios are likely: fresh snap polls or forming a minority government by so-called protest parties headed by Trifonov and ITN.
“At any rate, such a minority government would be the amalgamation of many different political interests. Trifonov’s populism is there on the one hand with the reform and pro-Western course Bulgaria is headed for, and there is also the Turkish Party that would get included. So, this minority government would be politically inconsistent in the program, thereby it would be quite unstable. I think that, if such a minority government was formed, a political crisis would follow soon after and new elections would occur,” Troshanovski says.
Regarding the Skopje-Sofia dispute, Kacarska is convinced that the odds that Sofia will change its mind in regards to Skopje and adopting our negotiating framework and starting accession negotiations by the end of the year are extremely slim, especially considering the upcoming fall presidential elections.
“Such circumstances make the efforts that the Slovenian presidency and other partners would put into our negotiations harder from the very start,” Kacarska concludes.
Troshanovski agrees that the odds for starting the negotiations with the EU by the end of this year are slim.
“There are probabilities in politics, certain scenarios don’t exist. It’s more than likely that we won’t reach a consensus. If the technical government was the problem before, now this minority government will become the problem, or the various opinions within that government about solving the Macedonian question. At any rate, for this government to solve anything with Macedonia, it’d need to be backed up by GERB or the Socialists, and given their positions regarding this question so far, that’s not going to happen. That’s why I don’t expect this dispute to be solved any time soon, not even next year,” Troshanovski says.
Unfortunately, he adds, the big partners’ diplomacies, friends of this country, have been working, but before the Portuguese presidency ends in this upcoming period, there have been some strong, never before seen diplomatic statements that still yielded no results.
“I don’t think the circumstances are favorable, especially since the offered contract is not reciprocal and it harms our country’s interests in the long run,” Troshanovski highlights.
Regarding the adoption of a resolution backed by all political parties in Parliament that would draw the country’s red lines, Kacarska believes that this would legitimize the internal and external positions of every future government in the talks focused on overcoming the differences with Bulgaria.
“Without a doubt, we need internal discussion and building a strategy above all party lines and an approach to difficult questions, such as the talks with Sofia. A resolution that builds state positions for the Sofia negotiations, if backed up by all key political factors, would secure the legitimacy of the positions in and out of every subsequent government. From a Bulgarian negotiation aspect, it could be viewed as a limiting factor, but it doesn’t beat the real situation that our political factors from all orientations must sit down and discuss these difficult questions,” Kacarska comments on the possible ways the adoption of VMRO-DPMNE’s draft resolution submitted to the assembly would reflect on our negotiation positions in the talks with Sofia.
Troshanovski says that it’s about time that the parties become united about such an important matter of national interest.
“I think all parties should support this resolution and unite around it. If identity and language are non-negotiable, then this resolution has no reason to harm even the most delicate diplomatic solutions that could arise from this settlement. It’s about time that the parties unite and draw our red lines. If not, we’re just going to harm ourselves in the long run through clumsy solutions that would harm national interest,” Troshanovski says.
On Wednesday, Bulgaria's Central Election Commission said that based on 100 per cent of district election commission tally sheets counted at constituency election commissions, the There Is Such a People (TISP) party has won 24.08 per cent (657 824 votes) in the July 11 snap parliamentary elections, BTA news agency reported.
Trifonov has announced that ITN will take responsibility for the government and suggest an independent cabinet, because the protesting parties do not have a majority to form a coalition party. He suggested Nikolaj Vasilev be the PM of this draft cabinet.
Former Bulgarian PM Boyko Borisov views Trifonov’s statement for a minority government as him saying he doesn’t want to form a government, and that it’s just “throwing dust in people’s eyes”. At a briefing in GERB’s seat, Borisov deemed it was a ploy by Bulgarian president Rumen Radev who wants to rule Bulgaria.
The new Bulgarian parliament will include four more parties and coalitions. According to the won votes, the BSP coalition is third with 13.5%, fourth is Democratic Bulgaria with 12.6%, then the Freedom and Rights Movement and Stand up Straight, Out with Mafia.
Voter turnout in the Bulgarian snap elections last Sunday was 42% as opposed to the 50% in April at the previous parliamentary elections.
The Central Election Committee is expected to announce the final results.
This is the second vote in Bulgaria in three months after the April elections resulted in a fragmented parliament that was unable to reach a consensus about forming a government.
Violeta Gerov
Translated by Dragana Knezhevikj
“Such circumstances make the efforts that the Slovenian presidency and other partners would put into our negotiations harder from the very start,” Kacarska concludes.
Troshanovski agrees that the odds for starting the negotiations with the EU by the end of this year are slim.
“There are probabilities in politics, certain scenarios don’t exist. It’s more than likely that we won’t reach a consensus. If the technical government was the problem before, now this minority government will become the problem, or the various opinions within that government about solving the Macedonian question. At any rate, for this government to solve anything with Macedonia, it’d need to be backed up by GERB or the Socialists, and given their positions regarding this question so far, that’s not going to happen. That’s why I don’t expect this dispute to be solved any time soon, not even next year,” Troshanovski says.
Unfortunately, he adds, the big partners’ diplomacies, friends of this country, have been working, but before the Portuguese presidency ends in this upcoming period, there have been some strong, never before seen diplomatic statements that still yielded no results.
“I don’t think the circumstances are favorable, especially since the offered contract is not reciprocal and it harms our country’s interests in the long run,” Troshanovski highlights.
Regarding the adoption of a resolution backed by all political parties in Parliament that would draw the country’s red lines, Kacarska believes that this would legitimize the internal and external positions of every future government in the talks focused on overcoming the differences with Bulgaria.
“Without a doubt, we need internal discussion and building a strategy above all party lines and an approach to difficult questions, such as the talks with Sofia. A resolution that builds state positions for the Sofia negotiations, if backed up by all key political factors, would secure the legitimacy of the positions in and out of every subsequent government. From a Bulgarian negotiation aspect, it could be viewed as a limiting factor, but it doesn’t beat the real situation that our political factors from all orientations must sit down and discuss these difficult questions,” Kacarska comments on the possible ways the adoption of VMRO-DPMNE’s draft resolution submitted to the assembly would reflect on our negotiation positions in the talks with Sofia.
Troshanovski says that it’s about time that the parties become united about such an important matter of national interest.
“I think all parties should support this resolution and unite around it. If identity and language are non-negotiable, then this resolution has no reason to harm even the most delicate diplomatic solutions that could arise from this settlement. It’s about time that the parties unite and draw our red lines. If not, we’re just going to harm ourselves in the long run through clumsy solutions that would harm national interest,” Troshanovski says.
On Wednesday, Bulgaria's Central Election Commission said that based on 100 per cent of district election commission tally sheets counted at constituency election commissions, the There Is Such a People (TISP) party has won 24.08 per cent (657 824 votes) in the July 11 snap parliamentary elections, BTA news agency reported.
Trifonov has announced that ITN will take responsibility for the government and suggest an independent cabinet, because the protesting parties do not have a majority to form a coalition party. He suggested Nikolaj Vasilev be the PM of this draft cabinet.
Former Bulgarian PM Boyko Borisov views Trifonov’s statement for a minority government as him saying he doesn’t want to form a government, and that it’s just “throwing dust in people’s eyes”. At a briefing in GERB’s seat, Borisov deemed it was a ploy by Bulgarian president Rumen Radev who wants to rule Bulgaria.
The new Bulgarian parliament will include four more parties and coalitions. According to the won votes, the BSP coalition is third with 13.5%, fourth is Democratic Bulgaria with 12.6%, then the Freedom and Rights Movement and Stand up Straight, Out with Mafia.
Voter turnout in the Bulgarian snap elections last Sunday was 42% as opposed to the 50% in April at the previous parliamentary elections.
The Central Election Committee is expected to announce the final results.
This is the second vote in Bulgaria in three months after the April elections resulted in a fragmented parliament that was unable to reach a consensus about forming a government.
Violeta Gerov
Translated by Dragana Knezhevikj 
