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IMF makes fresh downgrades to global growth as 'storm clouds gather'

IMF makes fresh downgrades to global growth as 'storm clouds gather'
Washington, 11 October 2022 (dpa/MIA) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global growth forecast for the coming year to 2.7%, citing the impacts of inflation, war and the pandemic. The new guidance for 2023 is 0.2 percentage points lower than the international financial institution's previous projection in July. The IMF emphasized that the uncertainty of economic forecasts has been amplified by geopolitical risks, the rising interest rate environment, and the shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic. The further appreciation of the US dollar could also exacerbate a global slowdown. "As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement, describing the bleak prospects for the year to come. "Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability." The IMF warned that more than a third of the global economy will shrink in 2023. In the three largest economies - the US, the European Union and China - growth will stagnate. In the euro area, the gross domestic product is expected to grow by only 0.5% in the coming year - a significant downgrade compared to the previous forecast. Europe's economies have been especially buffeted by soaring prices and an energy crunch due to the war in Ukraine. For Germany, the largest economy in Europe, the IMF is predicting a decline in economic output of 0.3% for 2023. Inflation is expected to cool in 2023 and 2024, the IMF said in the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook. This year, the IMF anticipates an inflation rate of 7.2% in industrialized countries, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than what was assumed in the summer. For the coming year, it forecasts an average inflation rate of 4.4%, which is also significantly higher. In emerging and developing countries, the inflation rate is expected to average 9.9% this year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, and 8.1% in 2023.