Berlin, 24 February 2025 (dpa/MIA) - Germany is set for a shift to the right after the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured a clear victory in Sunday's elections, as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded its best-ever performance.

Voter turnout jumped from 76.4% in the last national elections in 2021 to 82.5%, according to the website of the federal returning officer, the highest figure since German reunification in 1990.

The election paves the way for conservative leader Friedrich Merz to become the next German chancellor, succeeding Olaf Scholz, following an election campaign overshadowed by a number of violent attacks and dominated by a highly charged debate on migration policy.

Merz's centre-right alliance - made up of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavaria-only Christian Social Union (CSU) - won around 28.6% of the vote with all constituencies counted, as could be seen on the website of the federal returning officer, up from 24.1% in 2021.

"I will endeavour to form a federal government that represents the entire German population," Merz said late on Sunday.

"And I will endeavour to form a federal government that solves our country's problems," he added, aiming to have an administration in place by the Easter holidays in April.

The CDU/CSU is set for an immediate return to power less than four years after former chancellor Angela Merkel retired.

The result represents a personal triumph for the 69-year-old Merz, who returned to politics in recent years after losing a power struggle with Merkel for the leadership of the conservative bloc more than two decades ago.

But the presumptive next chancellor faces the challenging prospect of forming a coalition amid the rise of the AfD, which climbed to second place with a record 20.8% of the vote on Sunday according to initial results.

The anti-immigration party, which is being monitored by domestic intelligence as a suspected far-right extremist group, has doubled its share of the vote from the 2021 election, having been boosted in the campaign by support from tech billionaire Elon Musk.

While co-leader Alice Weidel said her hand was "outstretched to take part in government," the party is set to remain in opposition as Merz repeated his long-standing vow not to work with the party - a position known in Germany as the "firewall."

Merz's most likely coalition partner is Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who tumbled to third place on 16.4% of the vote, ahead of Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck's Greens on 11.6%.

Scholz acknowledged the "election defeat" and described his party's performance - its worst showing in the country's post-war history - as a "bitter election result."

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius went further, calling it a "devastating, catastrophic result" for his SPD.

The picture was slightly simplified by the failure of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a minor populist party, to reach the 5% threshold usually required to enter the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament.

The BSW had the potential to splinter the seats in the Bundestag, leaving Merz weakened and reliant on a highly uncomfortable coalition with the SPD and Greens, but the party narrowly missed the mark. According to the Federal Electoral Commission it got 4.972%.

Also out was the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), which in the 2021 election achieved an 11.4% of the share and entered a three-party coalition government with the SPD and the Greens in an uncomfortable marriage.

The FDP, which ended up withdrawing from the coalition leading to elections being brought forward from September to February, will not enter the Bundestag after dropping to a meagre 4.3%.

Next chancellor faces challenges

The election came at a pivotal time for the EU's most populous nation, which is in the midst of its longest recession in more than two decades after two straight years of decline.

Households are still feeling the after-effects of high inflation, which hit Germany badly after Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while a growing number of high-profile companies in the country's key carmaking and industrial sectors are planning lay-offs.

The challenging domestic situation has been exacerbated by an apparent shift in the global order following US President Donald Trump's return to power in Washington, which could have massive implications for Berlin.

Trump's threats of tariffs on the EU, his loud demands for greater defence spending from European NATO allies and his push to cut a deal over Ukraine with Russia will all demand a serious response from Merz as the presumptive next German chancellor.

Merz made his position on the new US administration clear on Sunday evening in a traditional post-election TV appearance alongside his rivals, organized by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF.

"For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can achieve real independence from the US," said the CDU/CSU leader.

"I did not think I would have to say this in a television programme, but after Donald Trump's statements last week at the latest, it is clear that [...] this administration is largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."

Merz - who has long been seen as a champion of trans-Atlantic ties - even went as far as to question whether NATO will continue to be relevant in its current format, "or if we need to develop independent European defence capabilities much faster."

"That is my absolute priority, and I have absolutely no illusions about what is happening in America," Merz said.

Merz also took aim at Musk's interventions in the German election campaign, comparing them to interference from Russia.

"The interventions from Washington were no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow," he said. "We are under so much pressure from two sides that my absolute priority now really is to create unity in Europe."

The remarkable comments came as Trump congratulated the CDU/CSU on the election victory.

"Looks like the conservative party in Germany has won the very big and highly anticipated election," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform in an all-capitalized message.

"Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years," the president wrote.

Migration-dominated campaign

The early election was called after Scholz's squabbling three-party coalition collapsed in November. Months of wrangling over economic policy led Scholz to dismiss FDP finance minister Christian Lindner in November, which splintered the coalition and brought forward the election.

As it became clear that the FDP would not reach the 5% threshold to enter parliament, Lindner, who came sixth in his own constituency, announced his retirement from politics.

The brief election campaign was dominated by a debate about migration amid a string of deadly attacks attributed to foreign nationals, some of whom had been due to be deported.

Merz put himself at the centre of the political storm when he pushed through a non-binding motion with the support of the AfD calling for a crackdown on migration in the wake of a stabbing in Bavaria.

The move sparked nationwide protests, with demonstrators accusing him of tearing down the firewall against the AfD.

It also sparked speculation that he might build a coalition with the far-right party if other coalition talks prove too tough, a stance that Merz again vehemently ruled out following the voting.

One potential beneficiary of Merz's controversial move was The Left, a hard-left party that had seemed doomed to fall out of the Bundestag after a splinter group of self-styled "left conservatives" around Sahra Wagenknecht left to form the BSW.

However, a successful election campaign focusing on social issues such as housing saw the party top the polls on 19.9% in Berlin and soar to 8.8% nationwide, making them the surprise success story of the night.

Photo: dpa