Skopje, 10 November 2021 (MIA) – Angela Merkel, often considered as one of the most powerful women in the world, as well as one of the most influential and impressive political figures, is retiring from active political life. She led Germany through tough times, such as the financial and economic crisis, the humanitarian migrant and refugee crisis, and the Covid pandemic. Those were the years that Germany earned love and respect from Europe and the world, as German President Steinmeier would say. But, Merkel is retiring during great global challenges, during open disputes in the EU, the pandemic which still rages on, and a more than likely energy crisis. Merkel was the main promoter of closer cooperation between the Western Balkans and the EU, and fought for enlargement. The future of North Macedonia and the region remains uncertain despite the promises, and more hesitation within the EU concerning the enlargement process. MIA spoke to Ambassador Gjorgji Filipov and political analysts Albert Musliu and Dimitar Nikolovski about what awaits the region after Merkel’s era ends, and whether the new Berlin government will continue the EU’s current policy in terms of the enlargement and the influence this will have on Macedonian-German relations. Filipov points out that Merkel was the EU’s central animator for the question of the region’s future. The negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo started in her time, as well as the Berlin Process Forum, whose beginnings date all the way back to 2013/2014. The goal was, he says, to strengthen the Western Balkans’ mutual position in terms of the awareness of the inevitability of their mutual cooperation on a mutual, political, and especially economic field, before becoming members of the EU. He believes that Merkel’s move was influenced by the bad experience from the “premature” admission of Bulgaria and Romania into the EU and NATO, led entirely by these countries’ geostrategic position, keeping in mind their borders with Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union, through the Black Sea, as well as Turkey and gas and oil pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan and other countries which include Bulgaria in almost every capacity. Russia’s and China’s strengthened engagement in foreign policy was an additional influence, and the fear of these two countries getting primacy in the cooperation, and with it their political and economic influence on the countries of the Balkans. “During Merkel’s rule, Germany significantly increased its economic trade with the countries, even being in deficit with the majority of them as a result of buying goods produced in factories opened as foreign investments in the countries of the Western Balkans. That means that Merkel also increased the financial and economic dependency of the Western Balkans to the German economic engagement,” he said. Filipov, who was ambassador to Germany from 2005-2010, says that the name dispute between North Macedonia and Greece was solved during Merkel’s rule, although we’re unsure if she was directly involved in the negotiations and the German diplomacy, he says. He adds that Merkel came to North Macedonia on an official visit for the first time, because, in her own words, “both countries will feel equal amounts of pain and joy” as well as create new opportunities for North Macedonia. “As incredible as it may sound, Angela Merkel didn’t expect Albania and North Macedonia to get accession negotiation start dates during the German EU presidency. The reasons for why, who, to whom, why, when and how, are left to the historians and political analysts, but the fact is that the closest neighbor and the first country to recognize North Macedonia’s independence has become the final and greatest obstacle to its progress and political membership to the EU. Merkel, as a great pragmatist and someone who’s attached to the realistic politics took this peacefully, even though it was a great hit to her personally, as well as the German politics and diplomacy, and carried on working on rounding out her mandate, which was mostly truly successful for the interests of the EU, Germany, even the Western Balkans, as paradoxically as it may sound,” Filipov says. In terms of the new government and chancellor that Germany is meant to get from the Social Democrats, according to Filipov, before the Christmas holidays, he expects that Berlin will carry on with its old, even more intense policy towards the Western Balkans and North Macedonia, a policy of support, insistence for bigger cooperation with the countries of the region and starting accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania. The portfolio leader for the Ministry of European and Foreign issues of Germany will also influence the process. Alber Musliu says that Merkel was quite dedicated to the region, having even initiated the Berlin Process. He says that she criticized Germany’s strategic partners for the way they behave towards the Western Balkans. He expects this region to stay the focus of the new government as well, even though her departure from the political scene means that we’re losing a friend of the region who was personally dedicated to it. “Germany’s new government will, of course, remain focused on the region. This is not up for debate, given our presence there, our economic cooperation, all the new and old connections that exists, but the personal connection is the thing that makes all the difference. We just need to wait and see if the new government will do the same. The weird thing about Merkel was that she’s right-wing, but it didn’t get in the way of her relations with the regional partners. She had the same attitude towards our prime minister, our government, and the Albanian prime minister, even though they’re both left-wing. I think she cared more for what was happening in the region instead of people’s political leaning,” Musliu says. Dimitar Nikolovski, the executive director of the Center for European Strategies – Eurothink, shares Filipov and Musliu’s opinions that Germany set itself as the main promoter of closer cooperation between the EU and the Western Balkans, and that it fought for enlargement during Merkel’s time. “Although it is considered the most influential member state of the EU, it wasn’t powerful enough to affect certain processes in the region the way it benefited them. I expect the new government to continue going down the same road and deepen the economic cooperation. It’s expected that the Greens will get the opportunity to manage the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. If this occurs, I expect stronger rhetoric and stricter standards in terms of the rule of law and human rights in the region. Germany and the dispute with Bulgaria Given that North Macedonia’s road to the EU has been blocked by Bulgaria, and regarding whether the new Berlin government will have a stronger engagement in the context of unblocking the enlargement process, the three political analysts gave positive responses with slight reservations. Filipov says that bigger engagement can be anticipated, even though external policy was not the dominant issue in the pre-election campaign and the battle of wits between the chancellor and MP candidates in the new German Parliament. Instead, the focus was on social issues, immigration, ecology, economy and trying to get out of the pandemic that seems endless. He says that some statements by the Bulgarian president and other politicians from their technical government talked about the fact that German government is pressuring Bulgaria to lift the veto and let the accession negotiations start for Albania and North Macedonia, and to leave the historic, scientific and other professional issues from the Friendship Agreement to the appropriate committees. Filipov believes that Berlin’s engagement alone is not enough without Paris and the other member states. “After the friendly convincing, the Bulgarian president said that the committees’ work doesn’t matter, it’s the position of the Bulgarian minority in North Macedonia. He even set up a meeting with representatives of separate associations of Bulgarians from Macedonia, who were meant to confirm the thesis that ‘the Europeans understood’. What the Europeans will understand remains to be seen. I believe that even the strongest engagement by Germany will not be enough if it’s just left to Germany, if the other members stay mutely to the side, watching an older brother abuse his power and stop his younger brother’s development, shaming and reducing the entire family’s reputation, by which I mean the EU,” Filipov says. From following most debates on German TV before the elections, even now, it’s a good thing that the next Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said that the first visit after becoming Chancellor will be to Paris, to meet with Emmanuel Macron, the President of France. This means that he understands that without mutual, friendly relations, instead of merely legally binding ones between Germany and France, there is no driving force in the EU. He’s also happy about the fact that Annalena Baerbock, the co-leader of the Greens, will go to Brussels first, which he believes is the way the European Commission is given meaning and support in order to revitalize the Union. Musliu believes that the new German government will focus on the region, but the extent of it is yet to be seen. “Of course it’s possible, but it’ll depend on the personal dedication, the focus of the new government, the new Chancellor and issues from the Balkans. Germany is not a local force, it’s a global player and we’ll see how much the new government will focus on this region in this global game. I believe that this region will be part of the new government’s focus, but the extent of it is yet to be seen,” Musliu says. Nikolovski says that there have already been serious attempts to convince Bulgaria to ease up on some of its demands, but it hasn’t occurred yet. He expects bigger creativity and strengthened rhetoric towards Bulgaria from the new German government, due to the fact that the Union’s strategic goals are in question. Setting time limits and the European integration process The Brdo Summit Declaration confirms the region’s European perspective, without a precise timeframe. Merkel backed this attitude. Filipov says that the EU leaders had no other choice at the Summit, having to make the declaration as it is, without a precise timeframe. That means that there was significant protest against a timeframe from a representative of a country, and it’s not difficult to guess which country that is. “Merkel is a real politician who always looks at the big picture and what’s best for the EU at the time. So, she had to agree to such a declaration, which is why she backed this attitude. This will stay the case, and the EU won’t move forward, and its reputation in the world will keep declining until it finds a decision-making mechanism that doesn’t require a consensus, but an out-vote. Look at the last shifts in the behavior of some countries and the constant members of the UN’s Security Council, and you’ll see that the big forces are sort of avoiding the EU when it comes to political or security-related decisions, talking separately to the great countries of the EU. As far as the determiners go, they’ll surely help because things will be clearer. Of course, when determining a timeframe, like any other task, it needs to be SMART – Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Real, Time Limit,” Filipov says. Musliu, on the other hand, believes that time frames are not much help for the Union’s enlargement process, but what it did for the reform agenda. “Maybe the Slovenian PM wanted his CV to say that he did something for the region, which he did, without question. But, EU integration experiences point to the fact that giving a date doesn’t change much. The EU is a slow system. It’s more important for me that they prove they’re dedicated, that they fulfill their promises, than for there to be a timeframe that they have to follow. As societies, I think it wouldn’t do much for us if it relieves our politicians of the responsibility to do what they must. It’s no coincidence that our Chancellor distanced herself of this initiative,” Musliu says. Nikolovski’s attitude is that timeframes will definitely help the process, and contribute to the governments and citizens of the Western Balkans take their European partners more seriously. “Right now, the disappointment is huge, especially in Macedonia and Bulgaria, and the pro-European forces are struggling to maintain support for the EU in the wider public. If the EU’s communication is more precise, it will restore trust,” Nikolovski pointed out. The Berlin Process Merkel’s contribution to the European integration can be seen most clearly through the Berlin Process which she initiated eight years ago. Expectations are that the new German government will support it. Filipov reminds of Merkel’s statement after visiting the countries of the Western Balkans that all countries of the region should become members of the EU, because it’s “absolutely in the EU’s geostrategic interest”. He sees Open Balkan as a regional initiative meant to add to the Berlin Process. “That’s the goal of the Berlin Process, to prepare these countries for their membership into a club with an already high membership cost, but it also has great benefits for its members. Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia saw this, and suggested a sort of association of these countries based on a platform called Open Balkan, which was given a positive judgment from the EU and the United States. Let’s believe that this association will really work, after which the other remaining countries, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo will join. I believe that the success of Open Balkan will accelerate the process of absorbing the other six members, who are geographical members, but not yet political and economic members of the most advanced political, economic and humanistic association of countries in the history of mankind – the EU,” says Filipov. Musliu says that he doesn’t believe that this question will be neglected, because Germany is a serious state, and we just need to wait and see the dedication it shows, and if this leads to new activities and increased dynamics. “I am convinced that Germany will be dedicated to the region, but it will show very quickly, so we’ll wait. I believe that the Berlin Process will be seriously present here. The new government in Germany won’t do what we do, which is minimizing it, and then starting a new initiative of the same kind, because history goes on in their country. Only in this country do smaller countries start new histories with each government change,” Musliu says. Nikolovski points out the contributions of the Berlin process, such as roaming and the regional youth office – huge steps forward, which are unfortunately not promoted enough to the public, and the citizens don’t even know that it’s a benefit from the Berlin process. “I’d like to go back to the communications: these huge investments are an opportunity to restore trust in the EU, but it has to be better presented and communicated. I also expect the Open Balkan initiative and the common regional market to converge in a few years,” Nikolovski says. At the September federal elections in Germany, the Social Democratic Party’s win over the Christian Democratic Union was tight. The SPD, the Greens and the Free Democrats are currently in negotiations over forming a coalition. If the negotiations are successful, Olaf Scholz, the SDP’s candidate, will become the new Chancellor. A new government is expected to be formed before Christmas, which will officially end Merkel’s 16-year rule as leader of the Christian Democratic Union. Violeta Gerov Translated by Dragana Knezhevikj