Berlin, 25 September 2025 (dpa/MIA) – A major new report suggests the number of new cancer cases worldwide will increase sharply by the middle of the century.

It will rise from 18.5 million cases in 2023 to 30.5 million in 2050, writes a team in the journal The Lancet published Thursday.

The team says this is mainly due to the ageing of societies, as older people are more susceptible to cancer. If a standardized age structure is used for calculations, the relative incidence of cancer will fall by 5.7% between 2024 and 2050.

Almost 42% of the 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 are attributable to factors that can potentially be changed, reports the international research group led by Lisa Force from the University of Washington in the US state of Washington.

The researchers used the framework of the Global Burden of Disease project to make estimates for the period from 1990 to 2023. They also produced a forecast for further developments from 2024 to 2050.

Developments have varied greatly around the world to date. Between 1990 and 2023, the age-standardized number of new cancer cases fell by 3.4% in high-income countries and by 8.8% in upper-middle-income countries. In contrast, the number of cases increased by 28.6% in lower-middle-income countries and by 23.6% in low-income countries.

The biggest risk factor that can be changed in most countries is tobacco use, which was attributed to 21.4% of cancer deaths. In low-income countries, unprotected sex poses the greatest risk, mainly because it can transmit human papillomavirus (HPV), which causes cervical cancer.

According to a study recently published in the journal Eurosurveillance, vaccination against HPV is very effective. In Germany, the authority in charge of vaccinations, known as Stiko, recommends the HPV vaccination for girls and boys aged 9 to 14.