Skopje, 20 June 2025 (MIA) - The National Bank Council has adopted at a regular session the latest Quarterly Report, which includes the most recent macroeconomic forecasts of the National Bank. According to the central bank, the macroeconomic picture of the Macedonian economy has not changed significantly compared to the October forecasts.  

"The growth of domestic economy would gradually accelerate in the 2025 − 2027 period. Growth of 3 percent is expected for 2025, which is a small downward revision compared to the October forecasts, amid a less favourable external environment. For the 2026 − 2027 period, assessments continue to show 4 percent growth of economic activity. It is expected that the main driver of the economic recovery will be primarily investments, supported by the public infrastructure cycle and foreign investments. A positive impetus is also expected from personal consumption, in conditions of growth in disposable income and lending. Risks to growth remain pronounced and predominantly downward," the National Bank said in a press release. 

The central bank expects a further trend of slowing inflation, noting that the latest estimates point to an average inflation rate of 3 percent in 2025, compared to the October inflation outlook of 2.5 percent. This change reflects slightly higher performance in the first quarter of this year, but also upward revisions to estimates of the price of crude oil and basic food products on world stock exchanges. However, inflation is still expected to drop to the historical average of 2 percent in 2026 and remain at that level in 2027. Risks to inflation are largely associated with geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty caused by protectionist policies, disruptions to supply chains and climate factors, reads the press release. 

It adds that the external position of the economy is expected to be stable in the medium term. A moderate widening of the deficit to 3.2 percent of GDP is projected for 2025, which, according to the central bank, will result from a lower surplus in secondary income, in line with expectations for stabilization of the nominal amount of net inflows from private transfers, as well as from the widening of the deficit in goods and services. An improvement in the current account is expected for the 2026−2027 period, with a projected current account deficit of an average of 2.7 percent of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to be maintained at the appropriate level throughout the forecast period.

As regards the banking system, the central bank estimates that it will continue to provide solid credit support for the economy. By the end of 2025, credit growth is expected at 9 percent. Growth is also expected in the medium term, but slightly more moderate and with an average rate of 7.3 percent for the 2026-2027 period, in conditions of a solid capital and liquidity position of banks. Credit growth, as before, will be supported by the growth of deposits, as the main source of financing. At the end of 2025, solid annual growth in deposits of 7.5 percent is expected, and in the medium term for the 2026-2027 period around 7.7 percent on average.

"In the first quarter of 2025, the National Bank continued the gradual normalization of monetary policy, with a reduction in the interest rate in February. Since then, no changes have been made to monetary policy, in conditions of favourable developments, but more pronounced risks. For now, it is assessed that the current setup is appropriate to the economic conditions, taking into account the risks from the external and domestic environment. The National Bank, as before, will carefully monitor the developments in the most important indicators and the risks from the external and domestic environment and will take all necessary measures using all available instruments to maintain exchange rate stability and price stability," said the National Bank. 

Photo: National Bank