Skopje, 13 November 2025 (MIA) - The macroeconomic outlook for the domestic economy indicates resilience and solid economic growth, a downward adjustment of inflation and a mostly stable balance of payments position, which ensures an adequate level of foreign reserves, Governor Trajko Slaveski said Thursday, presenting the National Bank’s macroeconomic projections for the 2025-2028 period to the diplomatic corps and representatives of international institutions.

The event, which is regularly held after each new cycle of macroeconomic projections by the National Bank, was attended by ambassadors, representatives of the diplomatic corps and international institutions. 

“The presentation noted that inflation for 2025 is expected to average 3.9 percent, and in the following period, it will follow a path of downward adjustment and return to the historical average, reaching 2.5 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in the medium term. The gradual stabilization of inflation in the medium term would result from anchored inflation expectations and limited pressure from domestic demand and import prices. Within the autumn projection cycle, based on better performance in the first half of the year, economic growth is projected to accelerate to 3.5 percent in 2025 and to 4 percent in the medium term, with unchanged assessments of the fundamental growth factors. Amid a public infrastructure cycle and improved external conditions, investments are expected to be the main growth driver, further supported by domestic consumption and export activity. The economy will also be supported by credit activity, with average growth projected above 7 percent in the medium term, backed by further expansion of the deposit base and a stable banking system,” the National Bank said in a press release.

According to the National Bank, expectations for the external position of the economy point to a current account deficit of 4.2 percent of GDP in 2025, representing a slight deepening compared to the previous year.

“In the medium term, for the 2026-2028 period, a gradual narrowing of the deficit is projected, reaching 2.6 percent of GDP by 2028. Financial flows, mainly in the form of foreign direct investments and long-term external borrowing by the state, are expected to remain solid throughout the projection period, ensuring full financing of the deficit and growth in foreign reserves. Global conditions remain uncertain and unpredictable, posing risks to economic growth, inflation, and the external position, highlighting the need for prudent domestic macroeconomic policies, especially those affecting domestic demand,” the press release said.

The National Bank stressed it is closely monitoring macroeconomic data and existing risks on a daily basis and will continue to respond appropriately. Governor Slaveski also noted that if the positive trend of declining inflation continues in the coming months, and in the absence of administrative interventions in setting wages, the National Bank is prepared to respond accordingly toward further normalization of monetary policy.

Photo: National Bank